2022年10月22日

自動駕駛汽車公司和供應商總共花費了大約750億美元來開發自動駕駛技術，在所有的現金焚燒之後，幾乎沒有跡象表明從機器人汽車服務中產生有意義的收入。這對Aurora Innovation Inc .、TuSimple Holdings Inc .和Embark Technology Inc .來說是一場災難，它們的股價今年都暴跌了至少80%。難怪英特爾(Intel Corp)剛剛將其自動駕駛業務Mobileye的目標估值下調至160億美元左右，這與10個月前據報道的500多億美元的估值相差無幾。去年7月20日，在美國紐約納斯達克(NASDAQ)市場，一輛汽車上掛著“移動眼”無人駕駛汽車的標誌。英特爾公司最近大幅下調了Mobileye的目標估值。通用汽車公司(General Motors Co .)旗下的Cruise LLC去年年初融資估值約300億美元。今年3月，通用汽車收購了軟銀願景基金(SoftBank Vision Fund)的全部股權，其價格暗示該合資企業價值約190億美元。當醞釀已久的新技術遇到公開市場的短暫耐心和利率上升的嚴酷現實時，就會出現這種情況。許多這樣的公司在技術得到驗證或業務接近自給自足之前很久就已經籌集了數百億美元。過去10年左右的炒作和最近的車禍讓人們開始質疑自動駕駛汽車是否會成功。 Anthony Levandowski, one of Google’s early autonomy pioneers, who left for Uber Technologies Inc and was later convicted of stealing trade secrets, is the cofounder and chief executive of Pronto, a start-up developing autonomous trucks for industrial sites. In a Businessweek cover story this month, he said that less-complex use cases would be the way forward for the foreseeable future. Adam Jonas, head of global auto and shared mobility research at Morgan Stanley, seven years ago ascribed massive value to a Tesla Inc mobility service that is still nowhere to be found. He said in recent a note that autonomy could be a 10 or 20-year proposition. Companies in the space are now being forced to contemplate drastic measures. Aurora chief executive Chris Urmson last month sent out an internal memo raising the prospect of cost cuts, taking the company private, spinning off assets or even trying to sell the company to Apple Inc or Microsoft Corp. Others have seen high-level turnover. GM chief executive Mary Barra dismissed Cruise counterpart Dan Ammann late last year. TuSimple replaced founder and chief executive Lu Cheng (呂程) in March, and its general counsel James Mullen resigned last month. Alphabet-owned Waymo LLC lost its chief product officer Dan Chu last month to 23andMe Holding Co. While executives and investors alike are in some cases heading for the exits, well-capitalized companies in the space are plowing ahead into new markets and projects. Cruise plans to replicate its San Francisco robo-taxi service in Phoenix and Austin, Texas. Waymo is to start offering rides in Los Angeles and also has been hauling beer between Dallas and Houston. Start-up Kodiak Robotics raised US$30 million in private capital this week and ran its freight trucks 12,875km from Texas to Florida. While there was a test driver at the wheel, the human ceded to the robot 94 percent of the time, Kodiak chief executive and founder Don Burnette said. The company is starting to haul furniture for Ikea. Asked if Kodiak would be ready to ditch the safety driver anytime soon, Burnette said: “We’re pretty close. It seems like we always say this. It’s a couple years out.” It might take even longer, but the market getting the timing of autonomy wrong does not mean it will never work. The lesson is that technology as radical as robotic driving was always better off in the incubators of daring venture capitalists, not the portfolios of trigger-happy stock traders. Comments will be moderated. Keep comments relevant to the article. Remarks containing abusive and obscene language, personal attacks of any kind or promotion will be removed and the user banned. Final decision will be at the discretion of the Taipei Times.