itBit

2020年12月28日

2020年12月28日下午3:10 UTC·2分鍾閱讀比特幣價格圖表。比特幣的需求來自衍生品，而非機構。比特幣的上漲發生在周末機構不交易的時候，超過了28,000美元。機構投資者(通常在美國)通過Grayscale和CME比特幣期貨交易所交易比特幣。因此，在周末，散戶投資者和衍生品市場主導著BTC的交易量。很明顯，由於現貨價格和期貨價格的差異，期貨交易量是比特幣在過去幾天上漲的主要驅動因素。在加密貨幣中，現貨市場意味著沒有杠杆的交易所，交易者不需要借入資金進行交易。例如，在幣安，比特幣現貨和期貨市場的價差約為40美元。上周末，比特幣的交易價格一直比現貨價格高出約40美元，這意味著買家需求來自期貨交易商。期貨市場成為比特幣價格主要驅動因素的風險在於，該市場可能會過熱。有幾個指標可以顯示市場是否過度擁擠。 Most prominently, the funding rate rises steeply when the majority of traders in the futures market are buying or longing Bitcoin. Hence, when the funding rate of Bitcoin is substantially higher than average, the risk of marketwide pullback increases. On December 28, a pseudonymous trader known as “Byzantine General” said : “Distortion has been consistently pretty high. And derivs sentiment has been in overdrive past couple of days. If we close this daily with a shooting star, then maybe this was the local top.” Based on market data, the trader also emphasized that one more “squeeze” is likely, which means another spike upwards is a possibility. Scott Melker, a cryptocurrency trader, also noted that a drop to $20,000 would surprise many, even though it is a major support area. He wrote : “A drop to 20k to retest the former all time high as support would terrify many, when that price was a dream two weeks ago.” There is one variable According to Alex Saunders, a crypto investor, data show that retail investors are buying again. Although data from PayPal and itBit primarily show growing buyer demand for Ethereum, it shows that the retail appetite for crypto assets is rising. Saunders stated : “Retail is buying again. $50M daily on PayPal via itBit & interestingly, of that ETH has gone from 10-20% to 27%. ETH/BTC looks to have bottomed on the weekly chart. BTC needs a rest. 2021 will be the year smart money finally comprehends Ethereum.” Throughout 2020, analysts have attributed Bitcoin’s rally to institutional investors. If retail investors re-enter the market, it could fuel the market to see a renewed uptrend.