摩根士丹利財富管理

2023年2月1日

投資者仍然看到了軟著陸的機會，並預計經濟將在年底前更好地發展。摩根士丹利財富管理公司公布了其季度個人投資者脈衝調查的結果:“由於投資者在高通脹、地緣政治擔憂和衰退擔憂中徘徊，這是一個具有挑戰性的市場環境。”超過一半(52%)的投資者表示，他們本季度看空股市，比上一季度略有下降(3%)。大多數投資者(89%)預計本季度市場波動將持續或加劇。人們最擔心的是通貨膨脹和經濟衰退。盡管超過一半(55%)的投資者認為通脹已經見頂，並將開始放緩，但近三分之二(64%)的投資者表示，他們認為這是他們投資組合麵臨的最大風險。衰退風險(49%)和市場波動(44%)排在前三位。不過相信經濟衰退的人少了。超過三分之一(40%)的投資者表示，他們認為我們目前處於商業周期的衰退階段，比上一季度減少了5個百分點。許多人相信“軟著陸”。超過一半(51%)的投資者表示，美聯儲將能夠引導經濟實現軟著陸，近三分之二(64%)的投資者表示，到今年年底，美國經濟的狀況將比目前更好。 “It’s been a challenging market environment as investors navigate through high inflation, geopolitical concerns, and recession fears,” said Mike Loewengart , Head of Model Portfolio Construction for Morgan Stanley Portfolio Solutions. “While these challenges aren’t likely to disperse anytime soon, it’s important for investors, where appropriate, to remain committed to their plan and consider the diversification of their portfolio. Moving money to the sidelines may sound tempting, but for investors with a lengthier time horizon, staying the course may be beneficial in the long run.” The survey explored investor views on sector opportunities for the first quarter of 2023: Energy – Amid geopolitical concerns and hopes of a China rebound, half (50%) of investors see more opportunity in this volatile but top performing sector of 2022. Health care – Many investors (40%) see opportunity in this historically defensive sector as they look to shore up their portfolios. IT – Over one in three (35%) investors may see a bargain opportunity in IT amid rising rates typically weighing on tech stocks and their valuations.