2023年7月20日

在一份研究報告,NYDIG全球研究主管Greg Cipolaro鑽研高度期待點比特幣ETF BTC及其潛在影響價格。Cipolaro檢查這禮物的機會,投資團體的影響,潛在需求釋放。分析還揭示了現有景觀BTC基金,黃金的比較,和潛在的場景,如果現貨比特幣ETF實現展開。前檢查發現ETF的潛在影響,掌握比特幣的當前狀態是至關重要的投資。而美國尚未目睹了現貨ETF,現有結構,包括信托灰度比特幣信托(GBTC),期貨交易所交易基金,spot ETF在美國以外,和私人基金,已經積累了驚人的288億美元的管理資產(資產管理)。全球BTC基金資產管理|來源:NYDIG值得注意的是,276億美元的資產投資於現貨產品。Cipolaro強調盡管如此大規模投資,現有的選項有缺點,ETF可以克服。牛市的觀點點ETF的樂觀情況下點ETF中心很多益處,它可以提供比現有的替代品。投資者從中獲利,加強投資者保護與交易所交易產品,品牌認知度的和熟悉的貝萊德和iShares,以及改善流動性,降低跟蹤誤差,並可能降低成本相比,某些現有的基金。Cipolaro指出,盡管現貨ETF的費用仍未披露,它擁有潛在的巨大需求。 In the quest to estimate the size of potential demand for a spot Bitcoin ETF, Cipolaro turns to gold for analogies. Gold ETFs currently hold over $210 billion in AUM worldwide, whereas nearly half of that AUM ($107.3 billion) is in North America. Remarkably, global ETFs only hold 1.6% of the total gold supply, with central banks (17.1%), bars and coins (20.6%), jewelry (45.8%), and others (14.9%) accounting for much bigger portions. However, BTC’s supply is already more heavily held in various fund formats (4.9%) compared to gold (1.6%). When looking at private investments, the ratio is more favorable. The share of private investment in gold ETFs is 7.4% compared to 4.9% for various Bitcoin funds. Private investment in gold is still primarily held in coins and bars (92.6% of private investment). Cipolaro highlights: The numbers are striking on an absolute dollar basis – over $210B invested in gold funds, while only $28.8B is invested in Bitcoin funds. Considering Bitcoin’s higher volatility compared to gold, Cipolaro uses a volatility equivalent basis to estimate potential demand for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin is about 3.6x more volatile than gold, meaning that on a volatility equivalent basis, investors would require 3.6x less Bitcoin than gold on a dollar basis to get as much risk exposure. “Still, that would result in nearly $30B of incremental demand for a Bitcoin ETF.” Impact On BTC Price The analysis also explores potential scenarios of a spot ETF’s impact on Bitcoin’s price. Assuming a 10.0x money multiplier (11.36x was observed in 2018), “for every $1 of AUM that flows into an ETF it impacts the value (market cap) of BTC by $10, assumes Cipolaro, concluding: On the lower end, $1B of ETF AUM would be on par with the existing futures-based BITO ETF. On the upper end, $100B would surpass the combined $85B in AUM in GLD and IAU. While we do not know the ultimate success of a spot Bitcoin ETF, these seem like helpful ways to bound the analysis. BTC price sensitivity | Source: NYDIG At press time, the BTC price stood at $30,144, remaining near the range range lows. BTC price remains near range lows, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com