2023年8月22日

OTP銀行:宏觀經濟和金融環境在2022年5天改變今天上午02:50宏觀經濟和金融環境在2022年後的快速複蘇Covid危機創造了許多行業的產能瓶頸,,一起大宗商品和能源價格上漲,導致發達經濟體通脹大幅上升。上一次我們經曆了如此規模的通貨膨脹是在1970年代。隨著通脹上升迅速,成為廣泛,美聯儲是第一個主要的中央銀行介入並開始提高利率。這大大加強了美元,美國10年期國債收益率升至4.3%。海外通脹顯然在2022年代中期達到頂峰,此後一直在下降的趨勢。在歐洲通貨膨脹也迅速上升,但這更大幅度上漲的天然氣和電力價格的問題。然而,通貨膨脹也在歐元區在2022年底前達到高峰,2022年10月以來一直在下降的趨勢。Russian-Ukrainian衝突有更強的影響,歐洲經濟前景和勞動力市場比國外少得多緊,歐洲央行對通脹上升緩慢。盡管如此,歐洲短期利率也在2022年底前升至2%。美國進入了一個技術經濟衰退在2022年上半年,但這是暫時的,下半年美國經濟恢複增長。 European economies proved more resilient than expected to the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the first half of the year, growth was helped by sectors recovering from Covid, but the currency area also avoided recession in the second half of the year and grew by 3.5% for the year as a whole. The main factor that shaped the Hungarian economy in 2022 was the armed conflict in our neighbouring country. Although the first half of the year still saw strong economic growth the Hungarian economy grew by 8.2% year-on-year in the first quarter and 6.5% in the second - this was largely due to the large one-off transfers at the beginning of the year. By the second half of 2022, however, the Hungarian economy had lost significant momentum and by the end of the year, the country entered a technical recession - two consecutive quarters of declining economic performance compared to the previous quarter. As a result, the Hungarian economy managed to grow by 4.6% in 2022 as a whole. Inflation, which rose to over 20% by the end of the year, played a significant role in the downturn, significantly eroding and turning real income growth negative by the end of the year. Decomposition of GDP growth (%) 8 OTP Bank Annual Report 2022 Strong domestic demand at the beginning of the year allowed businesses to incorporate the ongoing cost shocks into their prices, and from the second half of the year, several regulatory measures - tightening of KATA tax rules, special taxes, NETA tax increases, reducing eligibility for subsidized utility bills, etc. - also boosted domestic inflation. As a consequence, domestic inflation has also become disconnected from euro area and regional developments. Inflation peaked around 10% in the former and around 15-17% in the CEE region, while Hungary did not see inflation peak until the end of 2022. As Hungary is a major net energy importer, the sharp rise in energy prices has significantly worsened the external balance of the Hungarian economy, putting downward pressure on the forint. In addition, the continued delay in agreeing on EU funds has increased the risk premium on forint assets, also contributing to the weakening of the forint, which the central bank managed to reverse only by drastically raising interest rates when the EUR/HUF traded around 435. This has increased the effective policy rate to 18%. Falling gas prices and the EU agreement at the end of the year have already had a positive impact on the exchange rate. Hungarian yield curve (%)