RSM我們

2023年3月24日,

“三難選擇”與一個微妙的平衡,美聯儲現在正麵臨著一個“三元悖論”的重建價格穩定,減少失業和恢複金融穩定,RSM喬•布魯修拉斯表示:美國首席經濟學家。概率低,美聯儲將能夠降低通貨膨脹不會造成經濟衰退,防止銀行業進一步整合或失業增加,他說。“我們是在與通脹升高的情況,現在銀行業危機最重要的是,”joseph告訴CNN。"美聯儲試圖之間取得微妙的平衡價格穩定,就業和金融穩定需要給的東西。這東西是在150萬個工作崗位,如果美聯儲的預測是有先見之明的失業率(4.5%)。“目前joseph項目5.1%的失業率,這將符合250萬人失業,通貨膨脹和潛在衰退3%。“我認為美聯儲將走向一個高於5%的失業率預期,6月或9月,”他說。“我們兩個月前的3.4%。這是不平凡的。“快速升級的失業率水平,甚至引發了關注和批評美聯儲的4.5%,尤其是來自參議員伊麗莎白·沃倫。 Earlier this month , the Democratic congresswoman from Massachusetts (and frequent Powell critic ) pressed Powell about American jobs sacrificed for the Fed’s goals. On Wednesday, Warren reiterated some of her concerns, saying Powell’s actions present a “danger” to the economy. Powell has frequently countered that persistently high inflation remains a far more dangerous prospect. “The costs of bringing it down, there are real costs to bring it down to 2%,” he said Wednesday . “But the costs of failing are much higher.” A new wild card Then there’s also the scenario that the Fed could get an assist from an unlikely bedfellow — the banking crisis. “The tightening of lending standards and actual lending that’s going to ensue on the backside of this will cool the economy in a significant way, and that might,” Brusuelas said, emphasizing the importance of the word ‘might,’ “avoid larger job losses than what our research indicated prior to the onset of the banking crisis. But we’ll have to see. Banking crises are profoundly non-linear events, and they’re going to impact the different industrial systems in uniquely different ways.” The actions taken by the Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Treasury appear to have contained the crisis, said Eugenio Alemán, chief economist with Raymond James. “I think that the worst is over; the Federal Reserve has been very, very tough and very, very clear that they will backstop any further run against the banking system or banking institutions,” he said. “So I think that is on the mend.” Now, the question is how bad was this for expectations, or how consumers and businesses feel about the economy, he said. Business cycles, too, can evolve in non-linear fashion, said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “Many of the commentators are right in assessing that the possibility of just a mild slowdown is perhaps overestimated, is perhaps seen as too likely,” he said. “And once we start to see sentiment shift, either in the business sector or in the consumer sector, that can feed off of itself — that can lead to further weakness, which could lead to a stronger rise in the unemployment rate and weaker economic conditions.” However, he added, there are still too many potential uncertain factors in the economy to really know how this might develop. “I think we will see slower economic activity. I do think the odds of a recession have increased in the wake of this banking sector crisis,” he said. “And in particular, I think that we should be paying very close attention to credit conditions.” Prior to this recent episode, about half of banks had already tightened credit standards for commercial and industrial loans, Daco said, adding he estimates that to grow to 75% to 80%. “Maybe even higher,” he said. “That is going to constrain business investment, that is going to constrain hiring, and that is going to constrain consumer spending. And so that will lead to weaker economic activity going forward.” The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2023 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.