2023年3月22日

美國能源部啟動了清潔能源技術快速商業化的努力，為公共和私人投資者發布了“路線圖”，以推進三種有前景的技術——清潔氫氣、長時間儲能和先進的核能——但令人清醒的估計，到2030年，開發和部署這些技術的成本可能超過3000億美元，到2050年將超過1.2萬億美元。一位官員在3月21日的網絡研討會上表示，能源部將在未來10年投資數十億美元用於大規模示範項目和技術部署，目標是釋放數萬億美元的私人投資，以啟動這項被稱為“商業升空之路”的努力。“希望這些報告將有助於私營部門采取行動，”該機構的首席商業化官兼技術過渡辦公室主任瓦妮莎·陳(Vanessa Chan)說。其目標是製定一條實現政府製定的關鍵長期脫碳目標的路線，包括到2050年實現淨零排放。然而，每種技術都有其挑戰。Chan表示，長續航時間電池儲能技術仍處於成熟階段，需要在提高運行性能的同時降低50%的成本。美國能源部尋求到2050年部署225gw - 460gw，這將需要3300億美元的資本投資。美國能源部貸款項目辦公室主任吉加爾·沙阿在網絡研討會上告訴與會者，先進的核部署將需要在2025年之前訂購10個相同設計的新反應堆，以補充可再生能源。他說，一個問題是公用事業公司擔心成本超支和“廢棄風險”，同時指出，田納西流域管理局和安大略省電力公司之間的EPC合作關係應該有助於解決項目交付問題。沙阿還表示，某些燃煤電廠可以重複使用，並成為煤向核過渡的一部分，例如目前正在懷俄明州一個前燃煤電廠建造的Natrium先進核反應堆示範項目，該項目得到了聯邦和私人的支持。 “It’s only possible if we can build a skilled workforce and have community buy-in,” he said. Deploying about 200 GW of nuclear capacity in the U.S. could require $35 billion to $40 billion by 2030 and some $700 billion in capital by 2050, DOE said. “Challenges with transmission expansion, interconnection, land-use intensity and other factors limiting renewables buildout are likely to make nuclear an even more attractive option,” it said. Hydrogen Demand and Supply Needs Balance The agency has a $7-billion solicitation under way to develop six to 10 hydrogen hubs that it hopes will swiftly catalyze an additional $7 billion in private investment in that technology, said David Crane, director of DOE’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations. The hydrogen technology will be built and operated by the private sector. “The role of DOE is to enable it and accelerate it,” he said. The issue with a new commodity such as hydrogen is offtake in which demand tends to rise in small increments, but supply comes on in big chunks, Crane said. “It’s a winding road with speed bumps and we want to be the best partner we can be to help solve problems along the way,” he said. Production is the first issue hydrogen faces, but reducing costs is critical so the market can be self-sustaining when project tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act expire, Hannah Murdoch, a DOE senior advisor said during the webinar. The first downstream applications for hydrogen will be ammonia production, oil refining and heavy-duty transportation. Next is expected offtake for aviation and marine vessels. “Long-term offtake is the biggest challenge,” said Jason Munster, director of analysis for the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations. With investments from $85 billion to $215 billion through 2030, clean hydrogen production has the potential to scale to about 10 million metric tons per year across industrial, transportation and power sector use. It could reach 50 million metric tons per year by 2050, DOE said. DOE's three market development documents are designed to be updated as the commercialization outlook on each technology changes considering the “constantly and rapidly evolving market, technology and policy environment,” the agency said. DOE officials said they will seek constant feedback from industry. More reports will be issued in coming months. The reports three were developed using stakeholder input and system-level and project-level modeling. “They do not reflect DOE official policy or strategic plans; they are a resource intended to inform decisionmaking across industry, investors, and the broader stakeholder community,” the agency said.