2023年6月23日

貿易爐邊周五…Syz集團的交易主管瓦萊麗•諾爾Syz集團,瓦萊麗諾爾,坐下來與貿易探索股票市場最近的活動和發展研究分類的要求。什麼運動你見過在上周在全球股票市場?在今年上半年,市場情緒已經從悲觀的貪婪。對衝基金和機構投資者定位過於防守以及市場的勢頭收集速度他們不得不相應調整頭寸,從短到長的職位。散戶已經卷土重來和流動性看起來強大,當我們進入夏季。養老基金平衡和收購停電時間等因素是資金流動的動態變化,進一步影響市場格局。然而,未來的道路會變得更加困難。投資者準備進入市場大部分可能已經這麼做了。夏季也以低流動性和高波動,這可能會迫使一些大宗商品交易顧問(cta)和平價基金來減少風險。現在為什麼會這樣? We remain in a very unusual market context. On one hand, investors want to go long on risk assets to protect the real value of their assets as inflation may stay high for a long period of time. On the other hand, investors are not compensated for the risk they take. For the first time ever, yield on cash, bonds and equities is the same in the US. The yield on three-month US Treasury bills was 5.3% last week after Fed held interest rates at between 5-5.25%. That is the same level as the expected 12-month forward earnings yield across the S&P 500, which has risen by >15% since January. This is also equivalent to the average yield of US corporate bonds. How might this be impacting activity in other asset classes? Our house view is that we live in a “new normal” with higher geopolitical uncertainty triggering higher macro volatility and thus higher market volatility. While the first half of the year could be seen as a “goldilocks” (i.e. no recession and declining inflation), the second half of 2023 might very well be characterised by a come-back of more challenging macro conditions, with developed economies flirting with recession and inflation proving to be stickier than expected. This could shift again the pendulum towards a more defensive positioning in which investors require higher valuation premium to get compensated on risk assets. What needs to be done to boost equities in Europe? European equities is a tale of two markets. On one hand, it is made of international exporting champions (think about the G.R.A.N.O.L.A.S which is the acronym of mega-caps GlaxoSmithKline, Roche, ASML, Novartis, L’Oréal, LVMH, AstraZeneca and Sanofi). These companies benefit from a wide economic moat, solid balance sheets, fat profit margins and solid revenue growth. They continue to be favoured by international asset allocators who are ready to pay a valuation premium for these stocks. On the other hand, stocks exposed to domestic economies continue to fluctuate depending on the faith of local economies. While the Winter and Spring proved to be better than expected in terms of economic growth (mild recession only), Europe continues to face some structural headwinds which could affect again the domestic-led companies at some point. Amid the many, which regulatory changes currently being proposed will be the most impactful on equities? Member states of the European Union are pushing for a reversal of a significant legislation that mandated the segregation of investment research expenses from trading costs. These states are championing plans to revise Mifid II and are seeking a near complete reversal of the rules surrounding the practice of unbundling. The proposed changes would require investment firms to simply inform their clients whether they are paying for research and trading together, while also keeping a record of the charges associated with each service. This potential reversal has the potential to reshape the regulatory landscape, allowing for a more integrated approach where research and trading costs can be bundled together. This would be a very significant U-turn.